krichard2011

  特強熱帶氣旋  
   編號：08-20142015 ( 09 S )    
   名稱：Eunice

  基本資料   
　擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 25 日 08 時
　命名日期　　：2015 年 01 月 28 日 08 時
　轉化日期　　：2015 年 02 月 02 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    法國氣象局 (MFR)：130 kt
    美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：140 kt  ( CAT.5 )
    海平面最低氣壓　 ：900 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
98S.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-15.2S-72.5E



以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 71.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 70.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED BY EASTERLY FLOW. A
251957Z AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK LOW-LEVEL CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC WITH NO CHANGE IN THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

GFS皆看好97S和98S成旋

krichard2011

早上起來被這個底層嚇了一跳...
這是... 有底層風眼的擾動? @@

krichard2011

結構上大致是個小鋼砲
相當有利於雲系整合
稍早還一度疑似旋出底層眼
MFR也非常看好後期強度發展 上看 ITC

krichard2011

JTWC 發布 TCFA
螺旋性依然相當完美
對流方面似乎有日夜消長的情形
入夜之後應該會有所改善 水氣支援也還算不錯
此外風切稍強 不過等到開始往東南移動的時候
應該會逐漸獲得改善 數值也非常看好發展

REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S
64.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 63.2E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM WEST
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS WITH FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 270308Z SSMIS AND 270500Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGES DEPICT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW
MECHANISMS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

Meow

JTWC 升格 98S 到 09S，上望 105kt，算是很看好，潛力也比 Diamondra 大。

t02436

JTWC 18Z升09S
持續上望105Kts



MFR 00Z 命名Eunice
估計可達到強烈熱帶氣旋等級

** WTIO30 FMEE 280105 CCA ***
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/8/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  8  (EUNICE)

2.A POSITION 2015/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 64.2 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL
TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :39 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 170 SW: 240 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/28 12 UTC: 14.2 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2015/01/29 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 68.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2015/01/30 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2015/01/30 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2015/01/31 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/02/01 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2015/02/02 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 84.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=3.0
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED (REFER TO WARNING 27/1800Z), SYSTEM IS
RAPIDLY STRENGHTENING WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS AND HAS THEREFORE BEEN
NAMED EUNICE.
IT PRESENTS SINCE TUESDAY MORNING ON 37 GHZ MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY A WELL
DEFINED LOW  LEVEL CIRCULATION (GCOM 0812Z - F19 1359Z - F18 1545Z)
AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN SHOWS ALSO NOW ON 85GHZ IMAGERY A CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AT ABOUT 7 TENS (F15 2204Z).
DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS ALSO CLEARLY IMPROVE WITHIN THE SAME TIME.

UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MORE AND MORE CONDUCTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS, UNDER THE RIDGE, THE WVS SHOULD KEEP WEAK UNTIL
SUNDAY AND  A SECOND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TOWARDS THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND TO ADD TO THE ALREADY EXISTING POLEWARD ONE,
THAT SHOULD SUSTAIN A VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS, AS DIAMONDRA IS MOVING AWAY, THE MONSOON FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BETTER FEED THE SYSTEM AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
MAINTAINS A GOOD POLEWARD TRADES INFLOW UNTIL THURSDAY BEFORE A
TRANSIENT TROUGH SHIFTS IN ITS SOUTH.

CONSIDERING THIS ELEMENTS AND TAKING PROFIT OF A FAVOURABLE HEAT
OCEANIC CONTENTS UNTIL FRIDAY LATE, SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
THEN IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF
20S.=

Meow

0530Z 的雲圖顯示 Eunice 可能要形成雲捲風眼。