krichard2011

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編號　　　　：95 B
擾動編號日期：2014 年 12 月 25 日 02 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 02 日 00 時

95B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-4.0N-82.9E

t02436

JTWC維持Medium評級

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 83.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 84.6E, APPROXIMATELY 515 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 25
KNOT WINDS. A 261611Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY DIFFLUENT FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

RSMC IMD 持續分析T1.0

TCIN50 DEMS 270900 SATELLITE BULLETIN BASED ON INSAT PIC OF 270900 UTC(.)


REGION COVERED BETWEEN LAT 50.0N TO 30.0S AND LONG 40.0E TO 125.0E (.)
SALIENT FEATURES:-
VORTEX:-  
VORTEX OVER SW BAY & N/HOOD CENTRED WITH IN HALF DEGREE OF 7.3N/83.5E (.) INTENSITY T1.0(.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD MOD TO INT CONVTN OVER SW BAY ADJ INDIAN OCEAN BET LAT 4.0N TO 14.0N LONG 80.0E TO 9.0E & SRILANKA (.)

近中心對流稀少 還有待發展