Meow

  熱帶低壓  
編號：03F (93P → 94P)
名稱： 無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2014 年 12 月 21 日 01 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 12 月 27 日 10 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
斐濟氣象局 (FMS) :  30 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC) ： 30  kt
海平面最低氣壓   ： 998 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無

  討論帖圖片  
93P.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.13.1S.167.4W


以上資料來自：FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

美國早就撤編 93P，但斐濟仍維持並認為這兩天發展機會達到中至高，GFS 也認為會發展。

MODERATE TO HIGH
WWPS21 NFFN 220900 CCA
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 22/0959 UTC 2014 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F CENTER [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.9S 162.7W
AT 220600UTC. TD03F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOOR BASED ON GOES IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGRESS CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION IS POOR. CONVECTION IS PERSISTANT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFULENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND EAST OF AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTION FOR TD03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

Meow

很明顯就是 03F，而且美國編的 94P 偏離對流。

krichard2011

這或許就是為什麼老j定位定在那裡的原因
整體對流 其實並沒有在螺旋中心 疑似裸露
渦度雖然泛白 而對流卻在渦度以東
也可能是這個系統過於鬆散
有多LLCC的情形發生

t02436

JTWC評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.4S 160.2E(W),
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TIGHT TROUGHING
WHILE FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE STARTED TO BUILD IN. A 230343Z
SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO SLIGHTLY
CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

槽性明顯


FMS展望中表示未來兩天內發展機率為中等

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 23/0207 UTC 2014 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTER [1000HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 160.7W
AT 230000UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.


OVERALL ORGANISATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST AND NORTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP
LAYER MEAN WIND. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EAST-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 230800UTC.

Meow

JTWC 發布 TCFA 了，如果路徑比預測偏東還可能侵襲社會群島。



WTPS21 PGTW 231700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 159.6W TO 16.2S 156.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
231630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
159.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S
159.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 159.0W, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN
AREA OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC. A 231500Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A
230843Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35
KNOT WINDS DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
STRONGLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 241700Z.//
NNNN

蜜露

貌似是CCC

天阿..這隻如果命名..那還真是個紀錄.

不曾見過東南太平洋有熱帶氣旋

krichard2011

受到強風切的影響
發展方面受到了很大的阻礙
發展方面應該有一定困難
稍早JTWC也取消了 TCFA 並降評為Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
158.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 157.8W, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND
SHEARED EASTWARD OF A NOW UNRAVELING AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 260513Z 91H SSMIS
PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN
AREA OF STRONG (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED TO
BELOW 26 CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW