03S.Bakung 四年來首個由印尼命名的熱帶氣旋

krichard2011 · 2014-12-10 12:46

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-12-17 21:28 編輯

  二級熱帶氣旋
編號：03-20142015 ( 03 S )
名稱：Bakung

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 12 月 10 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 12 月 11 日 20 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 12 月 17 日 11 時

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速及最低氣壓
印尼氣象局 (BMKG)： 50 kt ( CAT.2 )
美國海軍 (JTWC)    ： 40 kt ( TS )
法國氣象局 (MFR) ： 20 kt
海平面最低氣壓       ： 1000 百帕

  過去路徑圖
暫無

  討論帖圖片
90S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.8.4S.101.2E

以上資料來自：BMKG、JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-12-10 22:19

稍早直接評級Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.0S 99.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. A 100321Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. A 100221Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

krichard2011 · 2014-12-11 13:04

結構相當不錯螺旋性非常明顯
底層似乎正在建立稍早JTWC也發出TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 110230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8S 97.7E TO 9.7S 92.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1S
97.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S
97.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 97.1E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTH OF
COCOS ISLAND. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVING CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEPENING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. AN 110057Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND BUILDING CONVECTION AROUND THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE MOST RECENT PGTW FIX INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30
KNOTS, AND THE GFS MODEL IS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120230Z.
//
NNNN

krichard2011 · 2014-12-11 17:23

稍早掃到的底層結構非常不錯
疑似開始建構出底層風眼
看起來是個小鋼炮
環境也還算不錯數值支持發展

Meow · 2014-12-11 23:01

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-12-11 23:18 編輯

印尼（TCWC Jakarta）認為直接增強成二級熱帶氣旋並命名 Bakung，是 2010 年 Anggrek 以來首個由印尼命名的熱帶氣旋，看好成為三級強烈熱帶氣旋。

IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

         BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS

Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 14:12 UTC 11/12/2014
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.

System: 1
Storm ID: 90S

SIKLON TROPIS: BAKUNG
Data pada: 11/1200 UTC
Lintang: 9.2LS
Bujur: 94.5BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar 20 mil (35 km)
Arah gerak: barat (262 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 23 knots (43 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Bengkulu
Pada  +0: 570 mil (1050 km) barat daya
Pada +12: 590 mil (1100 km) barat barat daya
Pada +24: 670 mil (1230 km) barat barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Kerinci
Pada  +0: 570 mil (1060 km) barat daya

Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 50 knots (95 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 70 knots (130 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 1002 hPa
Intensitas: Storm
24 jam Intensitas: Storm

Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran TL: 30 mil (55 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran Tg: 60 mil (110 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BD: 60 mil (110 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BL: 30 mil (55 km)

Radius angin Maksimum:
Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
Tekanan pada isobar terluar:
Radius isobar tertutup terluar:
Ketebalan Vertikal Siklon: Sedang

DATA PRAKIRAAN
Tgl./Jam : Posisi       : Akurasi: Kec.Angin Max:Tekanan dipusat: Gust
(UTC)    : derajat       :  mil (km): knots(km/jam):          hPa: knots(km/jam):
+ 6: 11/1800: 8.9LS 94.4BT: 035 (065): 050  (095):          1002: 070  (130)
+12: 12/0000: 9.1LS 93.9BT: 050 (095): 050  (095):          1002: 070  (130)
+18: 12/0600: 9.4LS 93.3BT: 065 (120): 055  (100):          1001: 075  (140)
+24: 12/1200: 9.6LS 92.8BT: 080 (150): 055  (100):          1001: 075  (140)
+36: 13/0000:  10.1LS 91.7BT: 110 (210): 060  (110):          1000: 085  (155)
+48: 13/1200:  10.4LS 90.3BT: 145 (270): 065  (120):          999: 090  (165)
+60: 14/0000:  10.7LS 89.3BT: 190 (355): 070  (130):          998: 100  (185)
+72: 14/1200:  10.7LS 88.5BT: 240 (445): 070  (130):          998: 100  (185)

Daerah Siaga Cuaca Buruk:
Daerah Waspada Cuaca Buruk:
Peringatan Dini Angin Kencang:

KETERANGAN TEKNIS
This system is expected to develop rapidly and move slowly westward, upper level outflow are to the north west and to the south west, weak wind shear persist until next 72 hours

Futher Information call +62 21 6546315/18
Informasi selengkapnya hubungi 021 6546315

DAMPAK
Tropical cyclone Bakung has not give any impact for weather condition in Indonesia.

Buletin berikutnya untuk sistem ini akan dikeluarkan pada: 11/1900 UTC oleh Jakarta TCWC.

蜜露 · 2014-12-12 01:51

哇~ 這隻如果從高層看. 還真的看不出來這是個TC

但是底層還滿紮實的..SSMIS這張還是能看出又在發展底層..
似乎中間像是眼在發展

JTWC還沒有升格03S也是..有點意外

Meow · 2014-12-13 15:17

MFR 一發報就判死刑。:lol

WTIO30 FMEE 130559
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20142015
1.A REMNANT LOW 3 (EX-BAKUNG)
2.A POSITION 2014/12/13 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.0 S / 89.6 E
(NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/12/13 18 UTC: 9.5 S / 87.8 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H: 2014/12/14 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 85.6 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
36H: 2014/12/14 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 83.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2014/12/15 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 81.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2014/12/15 18 UTC: 8.8 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2014/12/16 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.0, CI=1.5
THE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EX-BAKUNG IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT
ABOUT 150NM FROM THE CONVECTIVE BLOW UP.
THE ASCAT DATA AT 03Z CONFIRM THE INTENSITY AND SHOW A 10/20KT
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, REACHING LOCALLY 25/30KT IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT UNDER THE CONVECTION.
THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS DO NOT REGENERATE THIS RESIDUAL SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION.=