96W 對流消長發展不佳

t02436 · 2014-12-9 14:54

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-12-13 10:04 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：96 W
擾動編號日期：2014 年 12 月 09 日 14 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 12 月 13 日 04 時

96W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.3.5N.145E

t02436 · 2014-12-10 13:42

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-12-10 17:54 編輯

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N 141.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 100036Z
METOP-B IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING, LOCATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 100035Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK, ELONGATED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
LOCATED OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.