1422 哈格比中心裸露將掠馬來半島

t02436 · 2014-11-30 01:22

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-12-14 00:36 編輯

  強烈颱風
編號  :  1422 ( 22 W )
名稱  : 哈格比 ( Hagupit )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 11 月 30 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 12 月 01 日 14 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 12 月 11 日 20 時
　登陸地點　　：菲律賓 東薩馬省多洛雷斯
                                          馬斯巴特省巴圖安
                                          馬林杜克省托里霍斯
                                          八打雁省聖胡安

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB)： 58  m/s ( 17 級 )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA) ： 60  m/s (  115 kts )
　美國海軍 (JTWC)  ： 155 kts  (  CAT.5  )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓： 905   百帕
　七級風半徑　　：   250 公里
　十級風半徑　　： 80 公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
95W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.1.2N.159.8E

以上資料來自 :CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

krichard2011 · 2014-11-30 10:29

前幾天就在關注這一大片雲系了
螺旋明顯環流幾乎跨赤道
可惜昨天白天一直都沒有被編號
現在渦度已泛白前方一條康莊大道
大片區域垂直風切趨近於0 周圍環境也相當不錯
惟未來"如果"北上之後西北遠方的乾空氣有待改善
反倒如果偏西走的話傷害可能不大
但短期來看附近環境相當不錯
目前GFS 與 EC 皆有反應不過路徑倒是分歧
一個往西直直走一個直接北上

甜心 · 2014-11-30 13:46

本帖最後由甜心於 2014-11-30 13:49 編輯

krichard2011 發表於 2014-11-30 10:29
前幾天就在關注這一大片雲系了
螺旋明顯環流幾乎跨赤道
可惜昨天白天一直都沒有被編號

:o版大這隻巨大擾動低壓寶寶95w老實說看來的確滿有魄力了尤其它仍在遙遠的東南方遠洋緩慢移動，

不過長的大跟發展是否也會很良好不一定是正比但目前它所處環境是溼暖的區域符合孕育熱帶氣旋的條件的未來確有可造性存在。

目前大致所有氣象單位都滿看好它的但後期路線還很凌亂變數很多，主要還是得看它接近菲律賓東方海面時大氣環境的變化而定目前也無法說個準就是了。

t02436 · 2014-11-30 14:32

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-11-30 14:34 編輯

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.5N 157.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
292241Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES NO EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SHOWS DISORGANIZED, FRAGMENTED
BANDING. A 292301Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS MONSOON TROUGHING
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE TROUGH, WHICH IS FUELING THE CONVECTIVE BANDING. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SLP NEAR 1004 TO 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE DYNAMIC MODELS
ARE INDICATING RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

GFS 11/30 00Z

t02436 · 2014-11-30 21:33

JTWC升評Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N 157.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.7N 155.8E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG MID-LEVEL
TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 301052Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT
A WEAK, SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS AND SLP NEAR
1003 MB. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH THE SYSTEM
LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE INDICATING RAPID DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

型態非常不錯
底層也有在建立的趨勢

JTWC分析T1.5

TPPN11 PGTW 301210
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (SSW OF POHNPEI)
B. 30/1132Z
C. 2.67N
D. 155.76E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0739Z 2.28N 157.02E SSMS
30/0817Z 2.38N 156.52E SSMS
30/0909Z 2.58N 156.15E SSMS
UEHARA

Meow · 2014-12-1 01:08

看來這本來是 SPCZ 的一部分，在赤道北側形成 95W 以後 SPCZ 就被拉到北半球了。

JTWC 分析 T1.5，預告升格熱低近在咫尺。

TPPN11 PGTW 301506

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (SSW OF POHNPEI)

B. 30/1432Z

C. 2.90N

D. 155.40E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1052Z 2.60N 156.13E MMHS

UEHARA