t02436

基本資料   
編號　　　　：99 W
擾動編號日期：2014 年 11 月 05 日 08 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 11 月 14 日 00 時

99W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.6.4N.110.7E

t02436

昨天傍晚評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N 110.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 05130Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD LLCC WITH WEAK WINDS
(10 TO 15 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

對流零星還有待發展
數值支持進入孟灣發展

t02436

06Z提升評級至Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
110.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 109.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED AND
FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. AN OLDER 052228Z SSMIS SHOWS THE FORMATIVE
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME BANDING ON THE WESTERN SIDE. DYNAMIC
MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF THAILAND IN ABOUT
72 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

目前整體對流仍消消長長

krichard2011

雖然對流仍持續消長
不過隱約已可以看得出來
螺旋性有逐漸明顯起來的趨勢
GFS則看好在孟加拉灣有顯注發展
可以觀察一下

t02436

99W穿越泰國之後所有雲系皆已進入安達曼海域



JTWC維持原Medium評級

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
101.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 98.5E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHWEST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
LLCC. A 081511Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH
FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING. A 081512Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS JUST WEST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AND
SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

當前數值不看好發展