21E.Vance 風眼填塞逐漸減弱

CX723-A330 · 2014-10-26 09:46

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-11-8 10:53 編輯

  二級颶風
編號：21 E
名稱：Vance

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 10 月 25 日 23 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 10 月 31 日 02 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 11 月 05 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速： 95 kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓：965 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
93E.INVEST.20kts-1009mb-11.4N-94.6W

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

CX723-A330 · 2014-10-26 09:54

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad area of low
pressure centered a couple hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
increasingly conducive for some development after Sunday, and
tropical cyclone formation is likely by the middle of next week
while the system drifts toward the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake

現時NHC評Low
預料5日後為High

CX723-A330 · 2014-10-26 14:47

1. A broad area of low pressure centered a couple of hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing some disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become increasingly conducive for development, and
tropical cyclone formation is likely by the middle of next week
while the system drifts toward the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

NHC升Medium

CX723-A330 · 2014-10-28 02:42

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized near
an area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form later tonight or on Tuesday while
the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High

CX723-A330 · 2014-10-28 22:20

JTWC:TCFA
NHC:100%

1. Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is on the verge of becoming a tropical depression.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the
low moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Forecaster Blake

CX723-A330 · 2014-10-30 17:26

升格21E
上看70kts

INIT  30/0900Z 11.0N 100.2W 30 KT  35 MPH
12H  30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W 35 KT  40 MPH
24H  31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W 45 KT  50 MPH
48H  01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W 50 KT  60 MPH
72H  02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W 60 KT  70 MPH
96H  03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W 70 KT  80 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W 70 KT  80 MPH

krichard2011 · 2014-11-2 14:50

這個系統前幾天對流幾乎一度瓦解
不過最近這幾個小時結構又回來了...
底層也重建得相當不錯

Meow · 2014-11-2 22:43

今年東北太平洋第 15 個、太平洋第 16 個颶風。

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 11.9N 107.5W 70 KT  80 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W 80 KT  90 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W 80 KT  90 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W 70 KT  80 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W 45 KT  50 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W 15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW