94W 發展後繼無力

Meow · 2014-10-15 02:54

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-10-18 00:29 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：94W
擾動編號日期：2014 年 10 月 15 日 02 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 10 月 17 日 22 時

94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.9N.165.5E

ahdeeh · 2014-10-15 09:08

己經 UPGRADED TO MEDIUM :o

t02436 · 2014-10-15 09:43

補Low報文

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5N 165.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION OF
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY, SPECIFICALLY
A 141847Z SSMIS PASS. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE
SEEN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, CONSISTENT WITH AN
EARLIER ASCAT PASS, THE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH SOME
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY 20-30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM HAVE SOME MODEL DEVELOPMENT, WITH GFS
BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

00Z升Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
165.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DIPICTS
IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 142211Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY, A 142212Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND
WEAKER 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.