02C.Ana 高緯開眼轉化後影響加拿大

Meow · 2014-10-11 20:17

本帖最後由 Meow 於 2014-10-30 18:51 編輯

  一級颶風
編號：02C ( 91E → 95C )
名稱：Ana

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 10 月 11 日 20 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 10 月 14 日 11 時
轉化日期　　：2014 年 10 月 26 日 23 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速：75 kt ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓：985 百帕

  過去路徑圖
暫無

  討論帖圖片
91E.INVEST.20kts.NAmb.10.0N.134.0W

以上資料來自：CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011 · 2014-10-13 00:24

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-10-13 00:25 編輯

NHC 評級為Medium 螺旋性算是相當明顯
即將跨入CPHC的責任海域...
後期發展可能滿有趣的
GFS一度預測有可能跨入西太平洋
成為今年第二隻跨洋貨..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance during
the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 to 15 mph, and enters the central Pacific basin by
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

krichard2011 · 2014-10-13 07:35

正式跨入中太平洋
並且重新編號為95C

krichard2011 · 2014-10-13 15:44

CPHC 升評 HIGH
整體對流也有開始往內聚集螺旋性也相當不錯
GFS大致支持成旋
有滿高的機會可能會撲向夏威夷...

1. There has been little change in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface low centered about 1125 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii since this afternoon. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, which is moving toward the west at about 10 mph, and a tropical depression may form in this area on Monday or Tuesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

在補上JTWC的TCFA圖與報文

REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N 140.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 990 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE WHILE FORMATIVE,
ALBEIT BROKEN, BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO FLARE. A 130016Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LIMITED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROCEEDS TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011 · 2014-10-13 23:54

螺旋性相當完整
底層疑似正在建立當中
距離升格依該已經不遠了...
環境大致還可以接受不過附近的環境實在是頗乾
加上前方較強風切
要增強到一定強度具有相當的挑戰性
不過還是值得觀察

麻友飯 · 2014-10-14 09:04

本帖最後由麻友飯於 2014-10-14 09:33 編輯

已經升格02C了
預料80kts直襲夏威夷大島(編緝:0100UTC命名Ana)

Meow · 2014-10-14 23:08

繼續上望颶風並瞄準夏威夷島。

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 13.4N 143.3W 45 KT  50 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 13.8N 144.0W 50 KT  60 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 14.2N 145.1W 60 KT  70 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 14.6N 146.2W 65 KT  75 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 14.9N 147.3W 75 KT  85 MPH
72H  17/1200Z 15.7N 149.5W 75 KT  85 MPH
96H  18/1200Z 17.0N 151.6W 70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 18.4N 153.8W 70 KT  80 MPH