Meow

  特強氣旋風暴  
編號：BOB 03 ( 03B )
名稱：Hudhud

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2014 年 10 月 06 日 00 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 10 月 08 日 14 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 10 月 14 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：印度 安得拉邦 維沙卡帕特南

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
印度氣象局 (IMD)：95 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC) ：115 kt ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓   ：960 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無

  討論帖圖片  
99B.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10.6N.96.7E


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

GFS 看好成為強氣旋風暴至特強氣旋風暴，但 ECMWF 認為只會成為低壓。

Meow

IMD 看好一到三天之後成為氣旋風暴。

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF YESTERDAY’S CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER GULF OF SIAM, A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER TENASSERIM COAST AND ADJOINING ANDAMAN SEA. IT WOULD CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BROKEN LOW OR MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER ANDAMAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.00NORTH TO 13.0 0NORTH AND WEST OF LONGITUDE 97.00EAST.BROKEN LOW OR MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY AND SOUTH TENASSERIM COAST.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HOURS:
24 HOURS
MODERATE
24-48 HOURS
HIGH
48-72 HOURS
HIGH

Meow

可能是 IMD 很看好，還沒升格到低壓就先編號了。

Time of issue: 1230 hours IST Dated: 06.10.2014 Bulletin No.: BOB03/2014/01

Sub: Low pressure area over Tenasserim Coast and adjoining Andaman Sea

A low pressure area has formed over Tenasserim coast and adjoining Andaman Sea today, the 6th October 2014 morning. It would move northwestwards and concentrate into a depression by 7th October and subsequently into a cyclonic storm on 8th October near Andaman Islands

Meow

JTWC 評級 Low，但其實等同西北太平洋的 TCFA 甚至 TD 了。



AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.3N 95.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PULSATING AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT SPANS
ACROSS THE ANDAMAN SEA. A 061455Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
POOR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WHILE SUGGESTING THAT THE LLCC HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROCEEDS
TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

現在看起來底層似乎已經有開始建立起來的跡象
JTWC稍早也評Medium了
GFS從一開始就認為 這隻可能會是個不弱的系統
而EC現在也開始跟進了...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
95.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 95.1E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 062357Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
INCREASED BANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC
WHILE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE REMAINS DISORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
OUTFLOW. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Meow

稍早升格為低壓。

Latest observations indicate that a depression has formed over north Andaman Sea and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 7th October 2014 near latitude11.50N and longitude 95.00E, about 250 km east-southeast of Long Island. It would move west-northwestwards and intensify into a deep-depression within next 24 hours and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It would cross Andaman & Nicobar Islands close to Long Island by tomorrow forenoon. Thereafter the system would continue to move west-northwestwards for some more time and then northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast during subsequent 72 hours.

Meow

果然可以發佈 TCFA 了。



WTIO21 PGTW 071330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 94.8E TO 13.9N 89.9E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 071300Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 93.9E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
95.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 071030Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 070242Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 20 TO 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
081330Z.//
NNNN