1419 黃蜂年度全球風王形態近乎完美

Meow · 2014-10-1 03:06

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-10-15 01:35 編輯

  強烈颱風
編號：1419 ( 19 W  )
名稱：黃蜂  ( Vongfong )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 10 月 01 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 10 月 03 日 20 時
轉化日期　　：2014 年 10 月 14 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：日本沖繩縣名護市
　　　　　　　　　鹿兒島縣枕崎市
　　　　　　　　　高知縣宿毛市
　　　　　　　　　大阪府岸和田市

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：58 m/s ( 17 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：60 m/s ( 115 kt )
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：155 kt ( CAT.5 )

最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 900 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 250 公里
十級風半徑　　： 100 公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
90W.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-6.0N-170.0E

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow · 2014-10-1 15:48

ECMWF 預報十天後變這樣

krichard2011 · 2014-10-1 19:31

這隻GFS 也支持發展
不過這報GFS預測的路徑有些特殊且相當複雜
發展到後後期接近日本時被冷高壓強制壓到菲律賓呂宋島東岸...
以溫帶氣旋或熱帶低壓的型態登陸菲律賓
這變數還太大+200以上暫時先看看就好

krichard2011 · 2014-10-1 23:37

螺旋性漸漸有了...
對流也明顯爆發起來
目前看來已經初具規模
目前多數數值模式均支持它之後的發展

環境方面
目前這系統處在區域緯度偏低
定位附近之垂直風切也不高
海溫也相當適合水氣分布上也沒有太大問題
估計如果真的發展起來強度應該不會太弱
這系統觀察價值也不低
話說有種八月無颱十月颱風來趕進度的感覺...

krichard2011 · 2014-10-2 00:48

又是一個未來充滿變數的系統
GFS大幅調西到從台灣北部海面通過
SSD也評價這個系統T1.0/1.0
不過同樣的GFS預測還相當後期
可以先稍微注意一下就好

TXPQ22 KNES 011516
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B.  01/1432Z

C.  5.8N

D.  165.3E

E.  FIVE/MTSAT

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...SCHWARTZ

krichard2011 · 2014-10-2 01:26

JTWC 稍早評級為 Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N 165.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A PERSISTENT AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. BOTH NAVGEM AND GFS MODELS DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

shadow16 · 2014-10-2 11:19

本帖最後由 shadow16 於 2014-10-2 11:45 編輯

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 165.2E TO 9.1N 159.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 163.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
165.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD
AREA OF TURNING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012230Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS DEEP FORMATIVE BANDING BUILDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW
AND LOW TO MODERATE (5 TO 10 KNOTS) OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS A
POINT SOURCE REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030300Z.//
NNNN