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krichard2011|2014-10-1 22:30
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-10-1 22:35 編輯
結構改善得相當不錯
螺旋性相當明顯
不過可惜沒什麼人關心它 ><
GFS也不怎麼看好發展
不過稍早已經被NHC評級為HIGH了
午天內發展為熱帶氣旋的機率高達90%
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little in
association with an elongated area of low pressure located a couple
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form later
today or Thursday while the system moves toward the west-northwest
or northwest near 10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation,
this disturbance will likely produce locally heavy rains over
portions of southern Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud
slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
順便附上JTWC的TCFA圖與報文
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.4N 103.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION
ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES. A 011130Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A FAIRLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH A FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WESTERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
CYCLONE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA WITH LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH. |
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