1416鳳凰警報解除轉化溫帶氣旋

麻友飯 · 2014-9-13 12:55

  輕度颱風
編號：1416 ( 16 W )
名稱：鳳凰 ( Fung-wong )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 09 月 13 日 12 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 09 月 18 日 02 時
　轉化日期　　：2014 年 09 月 23 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：菲律賓呂宋島卡加煙河谷卡加煙省
                              台灣屏東縣恆春鎮鵝鑾鼻
                              台灣新北市貢寮區三貂角
                              中國浙江省寧波市象山縣塗茨鎮
                              中國浙江省寧波市北侖區
                              中國上海市奉賢區海灣鎮
                              中國上海市衡沙鄉
                              中國上海市崇明縣陳家鎮

颱風警報總計：海上警報 25 報
                              陸上警報 20 報

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB)：  25  m/s (  10  級 )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：  25  m/s (  50 KT )
    美國海軍 (JTWC)  ： 50  kts ( TS )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓：985 百帕
　七級風半徑　　：150 公里
　十級風半徑　　： - 公里

  台灣天氣資料
總雨量紀錄

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
96W.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-9.7N-153E

以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

blackcat · 2014-9-13 17:07

本帖最後由 blackcat 於 2014-9-13 17:10 編輯

GEFS預測
如果可能接近也是下週末的事了
時間還久先觀望

胎菊王 · 2014-9-13 18:40

机构又预报未来凤凰又在广东登陆

o780624o · 2014-9-13 21:58

路徑應該會在變化吧
只能再看看瞜

wuyinan · 2014-9-14 11:08

本帖最後由 wuyinan 於 2014-9-14 11:12 編輯

o780624o 發表於 2014-9-13 21:58
路徑應該會在變化吧
只能再看看瞜

t02436 · 2014-9-15 15:19

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-28 11:52 編輯

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1N 143.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW. A
142227Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY
FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF AN ILL-DEFINED
LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM SHOW EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1008 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
143.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT EASTERLY FLOW. A 142227Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES WEAK, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING LOOSELY FROM THE NORTH
QUADRANT INTO THE WEST QUADRANT OF AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM SHOW EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1006 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW

.