簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-9-2 18:29
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-2 18:30 編輯
JTWC發布TCFA
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6N 107.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 272 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 020451Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE
CENTER. A 020404Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER WINDS (30 KNOTS) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND WEAKER
05 TO 10 KNOT WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
NHC非正式時間提升至High
1. Updated: Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 300 miles southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, is producing a small area of gale-force winds. Although the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity has not yet acquired
sufficient organization or persistence for the low to be considered
a tropical cyclone, only a slight increase in organization would
lead to the development of a tropical storm, and advisories could be
initiated later today. This system is expected to move slowly
northward and then northwestward near the southwestern coast of
Mexico and the extreme southern Baja California peninsula during the
next few days, and interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of the disturbance. Locally heavy rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
風速已經在06Z給出35KT
EP, 93, 2014090206, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1075W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 50, 40, 0, 1009, 100, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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