98W 高緯冷渦轉暖

Meow · 2014-8-24 22:39

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-27 00:01 編輯

  基本資料
編號　　　　：98 W
擾動編號日期：2014 年 08 月 25 日 08  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 26 日 23  時
　登陸地點　　：無

98W.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-31.8N-151.2E

TXPQ24 KNES 240914
TCSWNP
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
B. 24/0832Z
C. 30.6N
D. 148.3E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION CONFINED TO AN AREA EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A CIRCULATION
THAT IS ELONGATED FROM NE TO SW. OUTLFOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. CONVECTION MEASURES SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 2/10 FOR A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

複製代碼

LOW 1012 HPA AT 30N 149E ENE 10 KT.

t02436 · 2014-8-25 08:50

JTWC剛剛編號98W
98W.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-31.8N-151.2E

Meow · 2014-8-25 20:29

風場掃描風速 30 到 35 節，只要 JMA 承認這是熱帶氣旋就可以直接命名了。

t02436 · 2014-8-26 00:05

JTWC評級LOW

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 33.5N 154.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 775 NM EAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS BEEN QUICKLY PROGRESSING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BEEN LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. A
RECENT 251107Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING OF THE
CIRCULATION AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. BASED ON THE ELONGATED
SURFACE LOW TRACKING QUICKLY INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND
A LACK OF MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

JMA維持溫帶氣旋
LOW 1008 HPA AT 32N 154E ENE 10 KT

Meow · 2014-8-26 03:06

JTWC 的 Long 女士分析為「副熱帶擾動」。:o

TPPN10 PGTW 251811
A. SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (E OF JAPAN)
B. 25/1732Z
C. 33.2N
D. 155.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. ST1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. ANALYSIS USING THE
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD YIELDS AN ST OF 1.0.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
25/1346Z 33.1N 154.5E GPMI
25/1523Z 33.3N 154.9E ATMS
LONG