1. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure
located almost 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Thunderstorm activity has continued to increase and has become a
little better organized this morning, and environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form
during the next day or so while the low moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122014
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014
Lowell has been devoid of deep convection since around 1000 UTC. If
deep convection does not regenerate, which seems unlikely given that
the cyclone is moving over SSTs around 23C, Lowell could become a
post-tropical cyclone by tonight. The initial intensity of 35 kt is
based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The cyclone should
gradually spin down during the next few days as it remains over cool
SSTs and in a stable airmass.
The initial motion estimate remains 310/7 kt. Lowell is expected to
turn west-northwestward tonight and continue moving generally
west-northwestward through the period under the influence of a
low-level ridge to the north. There continues to be a large spread
in the track model guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing
more poleward motion at days 4 and 5 while the GFS and GEFS ensemble
mean show a more westward track. The new NHC track forecast is
between the two camps and a little to the left of the previous
advisory, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.
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