95L 對流消長中心疑裸

t02436 · 2014-8-16 08:26

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-18 13:20 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：95L
擾動編號日期：2014 年 08 月 16 日 07 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 18 日 01 時
登陸地點　　：無
95L.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-14.2N-19W

t02436 · 2014-8-16 08:28

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-16 09:21 編輯

咦…又是編號兩小時沒人開帖0.0?
NHC評Low

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little during the
past few hours in association with an area of low pressure located
about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde
Islands. However, any additional development of this system is
expected to be limited as it moves west-northwestward into an
unfavorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

krichard2011 · 2014-8-16 13:30

NHC升評Medium(50%)
螺旋性還挺明顯的
不過數值目前不看好發展

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss the system over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of
organization. Satellite data indicate that the low is producing
winds of around 35 mph and that the surface circulation has become
better defined during the past few hours. Some additional
development is possible, and a tropical depression could form in the
next 12 to 24 hours while this system moves westward to west-
northwestward at around 5 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development or
strengthening. Interests in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...50 percent.

krichard2011 · 2014-8-16 21:35

稍早看起來還不錯現在就裸奔了 = =
NHC 降評 Low 數值也不看好發展
arly morning visible satellite images indicate that the showeractivity associated with an area of low pressure centered betweenthe west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands has becomedisorganized. Although the potential for tropical cyclone formationhas diminished considerably, the low could still produce a fewsqualls over the Cape Verde Islands today as it driftswest-northwestward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.