94C 環境不佳對流消散

CX723-A330 · 2014-8-13 20:26

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-20 07:57 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：90 E → 94 C
擾動編號日期：2014 年 08 月 13 日 20 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 20 日 07 時
登陸地點　　：無

90E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-10.8N-137.7W

CX723-A330 · 2014-8-13 20:28

本帖最後由 CX723-A330 於 2014-8-13 20:51 編輯

1. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is gradually becoming better defined. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has also become a little better organized, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development over the next several days when the system enters the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

NHC 評 medium

t02436 · 2014-8-14 20:41

12Z進入中太

EP, 90, 2014081412, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1403W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, ,

對流相當鬆散
可是NHC/CPHC都提升至High

1. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii
has become better defined overnight. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity has changed little during the past several
hours, gradual development of this disturbance is expected during
the next few days and a tropical depression could form by late
Friday or Saturday. This system is moving slowly west-northwestward
and is currently crossing 140W longitude, and it will move into
the central Pacific basin later this morning. The future discussions
on this disturbance will be provided in Tropical Weather Outlooks
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

krichard2011 · 2014-8-17 13:07

NHC 維持HIGH
JTWC於今天清晨發佈TCFA不過相較於之前
現在的對流似乎有點稍嫌貧弱有待加強 = =

t02436 · 2014-8-18 09:50

CPHC降到Medium
JTWC取消TCFA

1. A low pressure center about 900 miles east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii, was nearly stationary. Isolated thunderstorms near this system remain disorganized. Environmental conditions may support development of a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

前方乾區乾的有點可怕....對流看來都快被蒸乾了