t02436

  四級颶風  
  編號：09 E
  名稱：Iselle

  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 07 月 31 日 06  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 08 月 01 日 05  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 09 日 16  時
　登陸地點　　：美國 夏威夷州 夏威夷島      
  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
　  國家颶風中心 (NHC)　  　： 120    kts  (   CAT.4   )
　  中太平洋颶風中心 (CPHC)：  95     kts  (   CAT.2   )
　  海平面最低氣壓　　　　   ： 947  百帕

  過去路徑圖  



  討論帖圖片  
95E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-10.5N-118.5W


以上資料來自 : NHC、CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

編號一個多小時竟然沒人發= ='?
NHC評Medium
五日上看80%

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains disorganized.  However, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

t02436

NHC稍早提升評級至High
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
forecast to form during the next day or two while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

JTWC也發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 121.0W HAS
SHOWN IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS A 1044Z AMSU-
B PARTIAL PASS SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. WHILE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS BROAD WITH
THERE IS A DISCERNABLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS). MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTH PACIFIC SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MAXIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011

NHC升格TS 命名Iselle
上看 Cat.1

INIT  31/2100Z 12.7N 122.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

t02436

稍早的底層
底層眼已經構建完成
現在就等待高層眼清空






NHC分析CI4.0
給出65KT升格颶風
Satellite intensity estimates were 3.5 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC,
respectively, with the latest ADT CI values at 4.0.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 65 kt.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 14.7N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  02/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  03/0000Z 15.5N 130.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  03/1200Z 15.8N 132.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  04/0000Z 16.2N 134.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  05/0000Z 16.4N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  06/0000Z 16.5N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 17.0N 144.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

CX723-A330

NHC升格Cat.2(85kts)


高層風眼已完成

krichard2011

似乎沒什麼人在關心這個東太的颶風
風眼也開了一段時間了 強度來到 95KT
他小小隻的 我覺得還挺可愛的 XD

t02436

好慘....遺忘了他= =
巔峰95KT 環流屬於細小型

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 15.2N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  03/1200Z 15.4N 132.6W  100 KT 115 MPH

原本上望100kts並有機會達到MH
可惜09Z開始不再上望更高強度

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 15.3N 131.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  03/1800Z 15.4N 133.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  04/0600Z 15.6N 135.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  04/1800Z 15.7N 137.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  05/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  06/0600Z 16.0N 142.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  07/0600Z 17.3N 147.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

目前路徑指向夏威夷而去
前方風切尚可
乾區的話就不忍直視了= =