1411 哈隆日本四國雨量破千轉化溫氣

t02436 · 2014-7-26 10:19

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-15 09:12 編輯

  強烈颱風
編號：1411( 11 W )
名稱：哈隆( Halong )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 07 月 26 日 10 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 07 月 29 日 14 時
消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 11 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：日本四國高知縣安芸市
                                       本州兵庫縣赤穗市

巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB)：  53  m/s (   16  級  )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：  55  m/s (  105 kt  )
    美國海軍 (JTWC)  ： 140  kts  ( CAT.5  )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓： 915 百帕
　七級風半徑　　： 220 公里
　十級風半徑　　： 80 公里
  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
90W.INVEST-15kts-1003mb-6.5N-159.1E

CWB衛星動畫合輯

以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Small-Min · 2014-7-26 14:26

目前約在10.5N/151E附近的低壓雲系氣壓值似乎轉為偏高的情況，其表示中心穩定性降低，中心仍處於多重的情形，中心仍有重新定位的可能，雲系廣大有待整合，近中心垂直風切偏強，高層反氣流尚未建立完成，海溫狀況良好約29~30度之間，低層輻合良好，高層輻散差，雲系結構極為散亂，近中心對流爆發能力差，受到赤道輻合水氣支援將提升發展能力，但受到前方熱帶低壓影響發展值略微下降，未來持續偏西北西進行，未來是否有機會進一步發展仍需要持續觀察!

目前發展值:20%
當前發展為熱帶低壓機率:極低
現在發展為輕度颱風機率:極限低
未來雲系若有成功整併並且主中心多重能有效改善，發展值將有所提升

t02436 · 2014-7-26 14:33

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-7-26 15:00 編輯

評級Low
對流仍屬散亂狀

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 159.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LLCC
WITH BUILDING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 252331Z
ASCAT PASS REVEALS ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD
TROUGHING, WHILE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI SHOW VARIABLE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH WESTERLY DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS REGION IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jerry001001 · 2014-7-27 13:49

TCFA is effective!!!!!

zjk369 · 2014-7-28 00:53

關島這邊的好像開眼了兩個像是比賽。看誰能拿第11號颱風夏浪和第12號颱風娜基莉

t02436 · 2014-7-28 08:22

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
153.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 151.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROKEN
CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO COALESCE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A RECENT
271155Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF
VWS ARE IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LLCC. A 271156Z GPM
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
WITH A BUILDING FEEDER BAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY INDICATE DEVELOPMENT FROM
THIS REGION IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
LLCC STRUCTURE BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT STILL STRUGGLING
TO ORGANIZE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

對流渾圓後來居上

底層雖然沒完全掃到
但應該是有點樣子了

zu00818733 · 2014-7-28 09:28

JTWC老J 關注90W，看來90W可能搶先成為"哈隆"了

Meow · 2014-7-28 13:07

昨天在 96W 那邊即提到 90W 發展較快，成為 Halong 機會較大。就稍早發佈 TCFA 且分析 T1.5，今天讓美國升格 TD 並編號 11W 的機會很大。

TPPN11 PGTW 280314

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 28/0232Z

C. 11.5N

D. 149.8E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/2222Z  12.2N  150.6E  SSMS
27/2321Z  11.7N  149.9E  GPMI
27/2334Z  11.7N  150.2E  MMHS

UEHARA