96S 深冬擾動對流減弱

t02436 · 2014-7-4 21:33

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:05 編輯

  基本資料
編號　　　　：96 S
擾動編號日期：2014 年 07 月 04 日 21  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 07 月 10 日 20  時
　登陸地點　　：無

96S.INVEST-15kts-1000mb-8S-83E

t02436 · 2014-7-5 08:29

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S 82.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING FEEDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHERN FLANK WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER; A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

SSD分析T1.5

TXXS28 KNES 042342
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96S)

B.  04/2330Z

C.  8.6S

D.  83.4E

E.  FIVE/MET-7

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SSMI

H.  REMARKS...SSMI PASS CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD ORGANIZATION THOUGH
LLC MAY BE A BIT ELONGATED.  DT IS 1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING. MET IS
1.0. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

04/2109Z 8.4S 83.3E SSMI

...GALLINA