t02436

  熱帶風暴  
     編號：05 E
    名稱  : Elida


  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 06 月 29 日 02  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 06 月 30 日 23  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 07 月 03 日 14  時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    國家颶風中心 (NHC) ：      45     kts  (  TS  )
     海平面最低氣壓          ：   1003   百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
97E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-10.2N-95.6W


以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

暫定雙旋共舞的另外一隻也編號了

升評Medium

A small area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward
or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

martin191919

TCFA

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.0N 101.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A RECENT 300036Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
ADDITIONALLY SHOWS INCREASING DEFINITION IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS CONTAINED TO THE
SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E IS
HINDERING OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) IS
MODERATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT 1008MB. DUE
TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

甜心

這隻是乎與前方的熱帶風暴發生藤原雙熱旋效應中，部份雲系遭到拉扯結構目前不太理想。

krichard2011

昏了@@ 這居然比隔壁的道格拉斯還強 @@?
06Z就給超過TS 但現在卻仍維持擾動等級 不太對吧
這底層也很有樣子了應該早升TS了吧
這底層應該也早有 TS 的樣了吧?
97E INVEST 140630 0600 16.7N 102.4W EPAC 45 1005

t02436

krichard2011 發表於 2014-6-30 22:35
昏了@@ 這居然比隔壁的道格拉斯還強 @@?
06Z就給超過TS 但現在卻仍維持擾動等級 不太對吧
這底層也很有樣子 ...

However, the system still lacks a well-defined circulation center.
NHC在評級報文表示缺乏完整閉合中心
所以沒有升格命名

個人也認為有達到升格標準
補充：
NHC速報已升格為05E 直接命名

EP, 05, 2014063012, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1034W, 45, 1003, LO, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 40, 70, 1013, 150, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ELIDA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, epA72014 to ep052014

t02436

t02436 發表於 2014-6-30 22:38
However, the system still lacks a well-defined circulation center.
NHC在評級報文表示缺乏完整閉合中 ...

直接命名ELIDA
並認為現在就達到巔峰

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
1500 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  50SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 103.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 103.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 103.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z