02A.Nanauk 環境不佳發展不利*

martin191919 · 2014-6-7 21:26

  氣旋風暴
編號：ARB01 ( 02 A )
名稱  : Nanauk

  基本資料

擾動編號日期：2014 年 06 月 07 日 21  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 06 月 11 日 08  時
   消散日期　　：2014 年 06 月 14 日 20  時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
印度氣象部 (IMD： 45 kts  (  CS  )
美國海軍 (JTWC)： 55 kts  (  TS  )
海平面最低氣壓：  990 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
95A.INVEST-15kts-NAmb-12.1N-69.3E

以上資料來自 : IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011 · 2014-6-8 15:50

=現在看起來中心仍呈現裸露的情形
整體看起來還需要一段時間去整合
風切還可以不過北方的乾空氣是一大考驗
倒是目前數值算是支持發展的值得持續觀察

martin191919 · 2014-6-8 22:43

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-6-8 22:52 編輯

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AREA
OF DISTURBANCE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A
BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES
SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS ARE INDICATING
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

(t02436於2014.06.08 22:52補圖)

martin191919 · 2014-6-9 02:06

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-6-9 07:15 編輯

ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/081800Z-091800ZJUN2014//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
68.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8E, APPROXIMATELY 478 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELONGATED AND RAPIDLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 081446Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

(t02436於2014.06.09 07:15補圖)

krichard2011 · 2014-6-9 21:12

螺旋性相當不錯
底層也有正在建立的趨勢
不過北方強大的乾空氣仍是一大阻礙
相較於數值早期預測最近這幾報強度下修了一些

t02436 · 2014-6-9 21:26

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-6-9 21:29 編輯

JTWC發佈TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 67.8E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 68.1E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE
IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA, AT 31
DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

環流相當廣泛
渦度也逐漸泛白

德法分析T1.5端看IMD有無動作了

TPIO10 PGTW 091218

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95A (W OF INDIA)
B. 09/1130Z
C. 13.5N
D. 68.2E
E. FIVE/MET7

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT AND MET IS UNAVAILABLE.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

CHAPPOTIN