t02436

  基本資料  
    編號　　　　：90 L
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 06 月 04 日 19  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 06 月 08 日 03  時
　登陸地點　　：墨西哥

90L.INVEST-20kts-1003mb-19N-94.5W

t02436

補一下資料
NHC凌晨重評Low
兩日10% 五日20%


感覺就是GFS先前報出的微弱系統？

A stationary trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Strong
upper-level winds will likely inhibit significant development of
this system.  However, this disturbance has the potential to
produce locally heavy rains during the next few days over
portions of southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

t02436

升評Medium

Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche.  Despite strong
upper-level winds, some further development of this system is
possible over the next day or two if the low remains offshore of
eastern Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
This disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains
and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

Meow

AL, 90, 2014060512, , BEST, 0, 191N, 945W, 30, 1004, LO

風速已達 30 節，而且當地下午也可能有飛機實測，搞不好熱低 One-L 不遠了。

Meow

美國 2014 年首次熱帶氣旋飛機實測即將開始。

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 71-
A. 06/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 19.5N 95.0W
E. 06/1830Z TO 06/2300Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

t02436

NHC加報升評High

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
area of low pressure about 40 miles east of Veracruz, Mexico, has
become a little better defined this morning as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.  However, the associated thunderstorm activity
is currently poorly organized.  A tropical depression could form
before the low reaches the coast of eastern Mexico later today or
tonight. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate this system this afternoon. Whether a tropical
depression forms or not, this disturbance could produce heavy rains,
along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

另外FNMOC也掛出TCFA
只是是Fleet Weather Center Norfolk Virginia發出的？



目前風切強勁對流仍舊稀少…

krichard2011

經過地面觀測與飛機實測
判定此低壓的中心在陸地上
於剛剛降評Medium 不過因相當接近海岸
仍不排除有發展機會 不過這風切真的是一大考驗 = =

1. Updated:  Surface observations and reports from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the low pressure
system near Vera Cruz is just inland.  However, some chance for
development still remains because the center is very near the coast
and a slow and erratic motion is possible overnight.  Regardless of
whether any development occurs, this system will continue to produce
gusty winds and heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides, over portions of southeastern and eastern
Mexico during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

t02436

再降評Low
中心應該已經登陸了

1. Surface observations indicate that a well-defined low pressure
system has remained nearly stationary near Vera Cruz, Mexico. During
the past few hours, associated thunderstorm activity has decreased
significantly, and unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to
land should inhibit any further development of this disturbance.
However, this system will continue to produce gusty winds and heavy
rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, over
portions of southeastern and eastern Mexico during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

題外話
墨西哥南方有爆發大量對流
數值支持發展
有可能會編號 可以關注一下~