02E.Boris 中心登陸對流消散

t02436 · 2014-5-31 11:18

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:21 編輯

  熱帶風暴
  編號：02 E
  名稱：Boris

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 05 月 31 日 10 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 06 月 04 日 02 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 06 月 05 日 14 時
　登陸地點　　：墨西哥恰帕斯州托納拉

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC)： 35 kts  ( TS )
   海平面最低氣壓  ：1000 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
93E.INVEST-20kts-1009mb-11.5N-96W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-5-31 11:26

補個NHC評級
昨天開始就評Low
今天升Medium
五日預報給High

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly
conducive for continued development of this system during the next
few days as it drifts northward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

you · 2014-5-31 12:06

甜心 · 2014-5-31 19:09

93E低氣壓在東北太平洋上空誕生嚕，不過可是...它也太大隻了吧這麼大一陀後續要整合時間可想而知要多久了...。

krichard2011 · 2014-5-31 20:26

GFS 大致支持發展
不過預測發展後立即撞進墨西哥南部
底層還有待加強不過稍早從底層掃瞄來看
東方 91W 附近的那隻似乎比96W定位的這隻還要有組織

t02436 · 2014-6-1 09:05

NHC升評High

1.A low pressure area located about 300 miles south-southeast of
Puerto Angel, Mexico, has become better defined during the day.
Environmental conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for
development...and a tropical depression will likely form during the
next few days while the low drifts northward. Regardless of tropical
cyclone formation, this system will produce locally heavy rains over
portions of western Central America and southeastern Mexico this
coming week, causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent