01E.Amanda 歷年來五月最強颶風!

krichard2011 · 2014-5-20 19:17

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:23 編輯

  四級颶風
  編號：01 E
  名稱：Amanda

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 05 月 20 日 19 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 05 月 23 日 23 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 05 月 30 日 16 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC)：135  kts  ( CAT.4 )
   海平面最低氣壓  ：932 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片

92E.INVEST.20kts-1008mb-8.0N-99.7W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-5-22 20:05

升評Medium
螺旋性還不錯~

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase near an area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system during the next few days while
it moves northwestward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

jwpk9899 · 2014-5-23 05:28

升格01E
整體螺旋性很棒呢已經很有熱帶風暴的FU了

t02436 · 2014-5-23 08:46

補個路徑強度預測

JTWC上望55Kts

NHC準備命名Amanda
路徑趨於相同後期偏西移動

甜心 · 2014-5-23 18:16

本帖最後由甜心於 2014-5-23 18:17 編輯

01E低氣壓雖然剛生成不久但強度已經發展達熱低壓的程度了，今天雲圖看起來結構整合的還算不錯目前比較大的缺失就從水氣圖可看出中心部份的雲系還未完整是乎在裸奔中...。

t02436 · 2014-5-23 23:00

NHC15Z命名
東太首旋正式誕生上望65Kts

後期有機會回馬槍?!

TROPICAL STORM AMANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP012014
1500 UTC FRI MAY 23 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 108.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 108.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 108.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.1N 108.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.5N 109.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.9N 110.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE 0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

krichard2011 · 2014-5-24 00:24

底層看起來已經有在建立的跡象了
整體樣子也很不錯
GFS數值預測未來的強度也不弱
不過預測後期會在墨西哥近海減弱消散...

krichard2011 · 2014-5-24 11:35

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-5-24 11:37 編輯

來看一下最新的底層掃瞄...
底層風眼已經開始建立起來了
強度上衝至50kt
未來強度應該不弱
NHC上看C2 強度值得觀察

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 11.2N 109.1W 50 KT  60 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W 60 KT  70 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W 75 KT  85 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W 80 KT  90 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H  27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W 75 KT  85 MPH
96H  28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W 65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W 55 KT  65 MPH