krichard2011

  基本資料  
    編號　　　　： 91 E
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 05 月 17 日 04  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 05 月 20 日 02  時
　登陸地點　　：無
91E.INVEST.25kts-1008mb-8.9N-101.9W

krichard2011

NHC 18Z 給予
48小時內 10%
5天內 20% 有發展為熱帶氣旋的機會

An area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for development during the next few days while the
system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

目前結構改善很多
JTWC也給了風速25KT
稍後00Z評價大概會大幅提升
GFS數值也大致支持成旋
有機會變成今年風季東太第一旋

t02436

這次是NRL偷跑
比NHC早編…

剛剛升評Medium

Satellite data indicate that a low pressure system has developed
several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized over the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
to occur during the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

t02436

再度降評Low

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Any development of this system
is likely to be slow to occur during the next couple of days.
After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent

沒有乾空氣問題但頭頂10N就有強風切

麻友飯

TCFA+HIGH

WTPN21 PHNC 181400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.4N 109.5W TO 11.8N 116.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 181200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7N 109.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N 109.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 180504Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOT) WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING WHILE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY REMAINED
RELATIVELY WEAK AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO LOW (05 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191400Z.//
NNNN

t02436

麻友飯 發表於 2014-5-18 22:19
TCFA+HIGH

WTPN21 PHNC 181400

High是JTWC的
NHC還是維持Low
等等11AM就會再發報
到時再看看有無升評

NHC標準比較嚴格

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms.  Although this system lacks a
well-defined center of circulation, it is still producing winds to
near gale force in the eastern portion of the disturbance.
Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next
couple of days, unless a new center reforms farther east. After
that time, environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

krichard2011

螺旋性雖然明顯
不過對流仍是消消長長
NHC也仍維持20%
整體來講還有待整合
環境方面大致沒有什麼大問題
由於之後預測可能暫時偏西移動
有利於避開北方強風切區域
未來發展還是值得觀察...

P.S. NHC 自從12Z 之後似乎就未再更新
看看稍後00Z會怎麼報

t02436

取消TCFA

THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 181400).
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 109.6W,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 112.7W, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME FURTHER
ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED WHILE CONVECTION HAS BECOME
LIMITED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME POOR AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
STRONG LEVELS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSETTING THE
FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FURTHERMORE, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE STARTING TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE. DUE TO THE DECREASING ENVIRONMENT, THIS
SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.