90E 發展無望登陸前撤編

t02436 · 2014-5-7 00:59

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-25 22:24 編輯

  基本資料
編號　　　　：90 E
擾動編號日期：2014 年 05 月 07 日 00  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 05 月 09 日 03  時
　登陸地點　　：無
90E.INVEST.25kts-1009mb-11N-107W

t02436 · 2014-5-7 01:11

啟用必要發報機制
NHC比預定提早9天發出展望

直接評級Medium

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE COAST LATER THIS WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

t02436 · 2014-5-7 11:20

JTWC 搶先一步
馬上發TCFA

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11.5N 107.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO, MEXICO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
LOOSELY INTO THE LLCC. A 070034Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE ELONGATED LLCC. RECENT
SCATTEROMETERY DATA INDICATES 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH. DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.