martin191919

  基本資料  
    編號　　　　：91 B
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 05 月 05 日 19  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 05 月 11 日 01  時

　登陸地點　　：印度  科摩林角 卡納塔克邦

91B.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-5.1N-79.3E

t02436

補圖

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 78.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH EXTENSIVE, ALBEIT DISORGANIZED, DEEP
CONVECTION. A 051023Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN OVERALL
DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS
WITH STRONG MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 78.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 78.1E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION. A 052145Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVING
BANDING FEATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WHILE, OVERALL, THE
SYSTEM REMAINS SLIGHTLY BROAD AND DISORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE LLCC IS LOCATED NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS WITH STRONG MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

krichard2011

風速已經來到25kts
不排除稍後有機會發出TCFA
目前IMD仍尚未動作
整體螺旋性相當明顯
只是整體結構相當靠近陸地
發展有可能受到抑制...

krichard2011

krichard2011 發表於 2014-5-6 15:22
風速已經來到25kts
不排除稍後有機會發出TCFA
目前IMD仍尚未動作

在850hPa 高度場駛流來看孟灣有高壓檔著
西南季風目前應該...暫時還跨不過來...
大概要等到孟加拉灣生出系統
才會逐漸將印度洋的水氣輸送到東南亞來...
此時就要開始注意系統與梅雨鋒面之間的相互影響...

martin191919

Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 77.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 76.9E, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM EAST OF COCHIN,
INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MOVED INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR OF INDIA. THE BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED WITH ITS
REMNANT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED WESTWARD OF THE LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAT
IS HELPING VENTILATE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

t02436

中心看來已經進入阿拉伯海
但由於受到德干高原的破壞
還要再整合

但西側乾空氣將是影響發展的關鍵









SSD重新分析T1.0

TXIO22 KNES 072115
TCSNIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91B)

B.  07/2030Z

C.  11.3N

D.  74.9E

E.  THREE/MET-7

F.  T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR

H.  REMARKS...BANDING MEASURING GREATER THAN 2/10 YIELDS A DT=1.0. MET
IS 1.5 WHILE THE PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...MCCARTHY

可以留意馬國附近已經有雲團產生
西南季風爆發前奏！？

martin191919

再登陸

TPIO10 PGTW 081222
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91B (W INDIA)
B. 08/1130Z
C. 13.1N
D. 75.3E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   LONG