t02436

  三級熱帶氣旋  
    編號：16 U ( 24 S )
    名稱：Jack

  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 04 月 17 日 00  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 04 月 19 日 08  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 04 月 23 日 12  時
　登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)      ：  90  kts  (  CAT.2  )                              
    澳洲氣象局 (BOM)     :   80  kts  (  CAT.3  )
    海平面最低氣壓　     ：962 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無
  討論帖圖片  
90S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-11.2S-96.3E


以上資料來自 : JTWC、BOM、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC馬上評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED NEAR 10.7S 97.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHEAST OF COCOS
ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 160858Z SSMI
IMAGE INDICATES BROAD,
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LLCC. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLANDS SHOW
SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A SLP NEAR 1009 AND
A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF
2 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK TO MODERATE,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 97.6E
IS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 93.3E, APPROXIMATELY
210 NM WEST OF COCOS
ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 171339Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC AND WEAK FRAGMENTED
BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 171501Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DISPLACED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS
ISLANDS INDICATE SUSTAINED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
A SLP NEAR 1009 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW, GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE,
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC 發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7S
93.3E IS LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 91.9E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. A 181032Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING
OVER THE LLCC WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS OVERALL BECOME BETTER DEFINED.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VIGOROUS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

這看起來就像個TC了
BoM和MFR都還沒有編號

蜜露

這隻發展還算滿快的.  預測也看好他的發展.

可能是印度洋最後的焦點

t02436

JTWC 升24S 上望80Kts




BoM 編號16U 上望澳式C2

Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.3S
Longitude: 91.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [239 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa

jwpk9899

BOM命名Jack上望澳式C3
Name: Tropical Cyclone JackIdentifier: 16UData At: 0000 UTCLatitude: 12.5SLongitude: 90.8E

martin191919

BOM 升 澳式Cat.2

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Jack
Details:

	Time (WST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm April 19	2	13.2S	90.9E	55
+6hr	8 pm April 19	2	13.6S	90.7E	80
+12hr	2 am April 20	2	13.9S	90.6E	100
+18hr	8 am April 20	2	14.4S	90.7E	125
+24hr	2 pm April 20	3	14.6S	90.8E	145
+36hr	2 am April 21	2	15.4S	91.3E	180
+48hr	2 pm April 21	2	16.1S	92.0E	220
+60hr	2 am April 22	1	17.0S	92.6E	255
+72hr	2 pm April 22	1	18.1S	93.2E	290