t02436

  特強熱帶氣旋  
    編號：14 R (21 S)
    名稱：Hellen

  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 03 月 25 日 23 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 03 月 29 日 09 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 04 月 05 日 17 時
　登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加 馬哈贊加省 蘇阿拉拉

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)      ：135  kts  (  CAT 4  )                              
    留尼旺氣象部 (MFR)：125  kts  (   VITC   )
    海平面最低氣壓　    ：925 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無
  討論帖圖片  
95S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-11.3S-39.4E


以上資料來自 : JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011

GFS認為 又是猛貨一隻
能不能再來一次神預測
就看它的表現囉 這張雲量模擬也模擬出了一個漂亮風眼

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.8S 39.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM WEST OF PEMBA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS OVER LAND WITH
FLARING CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 251845Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE NATURE OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THIS AREA, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 39.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 40.7E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WHICH APPEARS TO BE
POSITIONED JUST ALONG THE COAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING HINDERED BY LAND INTERACTION. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER WATER WITH RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 36 TO 48 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

甜心

t02436 大大95s低氣壓是94s低氣壓進入陸地後重新編號的嗎??...它目前很接近94s低氣壓前天最後發報的位置，95s低壓壓目前中心在路地上暫無明顯發展預計未來出海後會有較明顯對流出現。

martin191919

EC也預測95S會逐漸發展，不過強度和環流仍小....

t02436

編號一天就TCFA...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 40.7E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 39.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS OVER LAND
STRADDLING THE TANZANIA-MOZAMBIQUE BORDER AND APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE COAST INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED EASTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE CYCLONES IMMINENT EXIT
INTO WARM WATER AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

martin191919

MFR

AWIO20 FMEE 261134
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2014/03/26 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The East-Northeasterly monsoon inflow is weak all over the width of the basin.
The associated convective activity is present from the African coastlines to 90E between 6S and
20S, more active along the African coasts, and over the northern part of the Mozambican channel
North of 16S, and also East of 65E, between the monsoon flow and the western flow, North of the
area of low pressure, between 65E and 80E, and from 10S to 40S.
The monsoon flow will weaken progressively up to the end of this week, and remain located over
the western part of the basin. The subtropical anticyclone will shift south of 35S on the southern
edge of the wide area of low pressure persistent over the central part of the basin for the next days.
A new subtropical anticyclone arriving south of Madagascar, and tracking very lowly eastwards is
expected to generate a persistent South South-east flow in the canal on Friday and Saturday,
converging with the monsoon flow in the north.
Upper levels conditions over the area are favourable to cyclogenesis with a good upper divergence
under the axis of the upper level ridge for the next days.
The disturbed weather over an area extending from the african coasts to The Comoros, is forecasted
to continue, and temporarily generates a sustained rainy-thundery activity over Mayotte and The
Comoros, and the northern coast of Mozambique for the next days.
The available NWP models (deterministic and ensemble prediction system) still suggest the
deepening of a weak circulation up to Friday in this area.
The likehood that a Tropical Depression develops over the basin is low Thursday. it becomes
moderate from Friday to Monday.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a tropical depression
over the basin and within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 50% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 50% to 90%