krichard2011

  三級熱帶氣旋  
    編號　：  18 F ( 18 P )
    名稱      :   Lusi

  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 03 月 07 日 09  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 03 月 10 日 08  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 03 月 15 日 23  時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC) ： 70    kts  (  CAT 1  )
    斐濟氣象局 (FMS)： 70    kts  (  CAT 3  )
    海平面最低氣壓   ：965  百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無
  討論帖圖片  
99P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.17S.171E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、FMS、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

早上FMS編號17F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F [1009HPA] ANALYSED
NEAR 17.0S 168.0E AT
062100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS NOT INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING OVER THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

眾家數值支持發展

t02436

06Z
JTWC立馬評級Low~~

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0S 171.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 070258Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WRAPPING AROUND
THE CENTER. A 062256Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND
BARBS ALONG THE EASTER SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VWS AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD FIJI. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

甜心

99p在最新雲圖上看起來好像在這一大片的低壓帶中活躍，不過這個在南半球算中緯擾動了吧那邊是以南回歸線為主。

t02436

昨天傍晚FMS又在17F不遠處編號18F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S 168.0E AT
070600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED OR
DEEPENED MUCH PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 850HPA.
SYSTEM LIES JUST NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

*********************************************************************
**********

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 18F [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 16.5S 172.5E AT
070600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 850HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP KEEPS IT SLOW MOVING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW

從最新的風場來看
除了左邊的LLCC明顯
右邊的也可以隱約可見
估計今天下午至晚上才能分辨這是17F還是18F

krichard2011

t02436 發表於 2014-3-8 00:53
昨天傍晚FMS又在17F不遠處編號18F

從最新的風場來看

不久之前的底層掃描
17F的定位看不出來有甚麼東西
反而是18F似乎已經有稍微螺旋的感覺了

甜心

今天看起來強度增強滿多的而且主體變的比較扎實，雲圖上可看出環流逐漸建立螺旋中應該有機會升格TD。

t02436