新細明體

  強烈熱帶風暴  
   編號：11 R (14 S)
   名稱：Fobane

  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期：2014  年 02 月 04 日 03 時
　命名日期　　：2014  年 02 月 08 日 09 時
　消散日期　　：2014  年 02 月 17 日 20 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    美國海軍 (JTWC)     ： 60 kts (    TS    )
    留尼旺氣象部(MFR)： 60 kts (   STS  )
    海平面最低氣壓   　： 975 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
97S INVEST 140203 1800  14.0S   70.6E SHEM   15  1010


以上資料來自 : JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

編號後馬上補評Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S 70.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMIATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT
WIND BARBS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

這隻螺旋性也不錯雖然結構目前稍嫌鬆散
不過EC與GFS皆看好它的發展....
可能是隻小鋼砲
預測會強過位在西邊的96S

martin191919

MFR的展望明日可能升熱帶低壓

Disturbed weather area south of the Chagos archipalago:
Since this morning, the convective activity show some signs of organisation. Scatt data from this
morning do not allow to detect a closed surface circulation but recent satellite data suggest at least
that, at least, a mid to low level circulation may be centered near 13.4S/73.4E.
Currently, environmental conditions are not so conducive as suggested previously: the low level
inflow is rather limited to the north as the monsoon flow is trapped in the circulation of Tropical
Disturbance n°10-20132014. Furthermore, wednesday afternoon, the southeasterly shear is
expected to increase somewhat. Thursday, the improvement of the equatorward inflow combined
with an easing of the shear should result in a more significant deepening and potentially a rapid
intensification.
Undergoing competing steering flows, NW monsoon flow and East trade winds, the low is expected
to slowly shift westward at first. From Friday and beyond, it should take a southwards then southeastwards
track under the steering influence of a deep upper to mid-level trough coming from the
south-east.
The likelihood that a Tropical Depression develops over the central part of the basin (South of
the Chagos archipelago) is moderate on Wednesday. It becomes high on Thursday and Friday.

甜心

兩者很有可能會合併成一個並增強為TD，不過那邊大氣環境看起來還不是很穩定後期缺乏導引氣流可能原地踏步一兩天才有明確動向。

krichard2011

這隻結構目前雖仍相當鬆散 螺旋性是有的
不過數值相當看好它的發展
不排除會是個猛貨

krichard2011

經過幾個小時的對流大爆發
樣子已漸漸有了 跟昨天來比對流微弱的情況已經解除
整體結構已經相當有氣勢
大部分數值都看好它的發展
以現在的情況不排除未來強度將很可觀 值得觀察
環境方面雖然周圍的風切偏強
不過定外大致處在風切微弱的地方
本身幅散OK不過低層幅合還有待加強
此外JTWC於剛剛針對97S發布了TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7S
72.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 72.0E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING SLOWLY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 051656Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 051856Z SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES WITH WEAKER (20 TO 25 KNOT) WINDS IN THE CORE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. WARM (GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTION AND
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

阿隆

上午這個底層已有螺旋樣可以預見不久後CDO將開始建立
預測路徑若可沿13S暫不南墜而偏西行~馬達加斯加的壓力不久後轉劇!