13S.Edilson 進入高緯轉化中＊

新細明體 · 2014-2-3 16:06

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 12:09 編輯

  強烈熱帶風暴
編號：10 R (13 S)
名稱：Edilson

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014  年 02 月 03 日 16 時
　命名日期　　：2014  年 02 月 05 日 08 時
　消散日期　　：2014  年 02 月 09 日 02 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)    ： 55 kts ( TS    )
留尼旺氣象部(MFR)： 55 kts ( STS  )
海平面最低氣壓　： 983 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
96S INVEST 140203 0600  13.0S 58.0E SHEM 15  1010

以上資料來自 : JTWC、MFR、颱風論壇整理製作

martin191919 · 2014-2-3 23:40

JTWC : LOW
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S 57.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
BROADLY INTO THE SYSTEM. A 031104Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED
BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC. A 030600Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

martin191919 · 2014-2-4 09:45

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
57.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 59.0E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE SYSTEM. A
031104Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A
POORLY-DEFINED LLCC. A 030600Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

t02436 · 2014-2-4 13:17

升評Medium
怎麼沒人改標題= =

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S
130.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED
FURTHER INLAND BUT HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE LLCC CAN ALSO BE SEEN
IN A 032242Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK OVER LAND THROUGH THE NEXT
3 DAYS; HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY
TRACK OVER, OR JUST SOUTH, OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
59.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 59.7E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
BROADLY INTO THE SYSTEM. A MOSAIC OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST TO THE NORTH, BUT MODERATE (20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
POLEWARD TOWARDS A POOL OF WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2014-2-4 16:11

MFR編號10R
上望45KT
預測會由模里西斯東部外海通過

krichard2011 · 2014-2-4 18:54

這隻結構看起來不錯螺旋性相當好底層雖然已經很有組織
不過對流方面還是有待加強

t02436 · 2014-2-4 22:40

節錄報文
12Z升TD
1.A "TROPICAL DEPRESSION "10
2.A POSITION 2014/02/04 AT 1200 UTC:
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/02/05 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/02/05 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

渦度已略為泛白

風切中等

螺旋非常明顯惟幅合待加強

新細明體 · 2014-2-4 23:22

JTWC: TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 041530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 110
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5S 59.4E TO 20.9S 58.0E WITHIN THE
NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141430Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 59.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 59.7E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 59.1E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FEEDING FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY, HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 041347Z SSMI-S
MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051530Z. //
NNNN