12P.Edna 漸入高緯轉化中＊

t02436 · 2014-2-1 12:41

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-26 23:57 編輯

  二級熱帶氣旋
編號：10/12 U/F (12 P)
名稱：Edna

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 02 月 01 日 05 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 02 月 01 日 11 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 02 月 06 日 14 時
　登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC) ： 50 kts  (    TS    )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)： 35 kts ( Cat.1    )
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)： 50 kts ( Cat.2    ) - 註：2014.02.04 06Z UTC由FMS接手
海平面最低氣壓： 985 百帕

  過去路徑圖
註：JTWC升格後之定位剛好進入FMS範圍故圖上無BoM區域時之路徑
  討論帖圖片
93P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-19.1S-152.2E

以上資料來自 : JTWC、BOM、FMS、颱風論壇整理製作

新細明體 · 2014-2-1 21:04

BOM已經把Edna降格為Tropical Low

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1253 UTC 01/02/2014
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Edna
Identifier: 10U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.9S
Longitude: 152.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [264 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa

雖然這貨有實測撐腰，但老J認為今早的風速實測受到雷暴因素干擾，所以並沒有作出升格。

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 20.2S 152.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MARION REEF, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED
ON THE EQUATORWARD EDGE OF A SHEAR LINE. MSI INDICATED A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL ORGANIZATION FROM 31/2130 TO 2330Z;
HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECAYED AND THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION IS MARGINAL. A 010408Z NOAA-19 IMAGE CURRENTLY
INDICATES WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MARION
REEF PEAKED AT 44 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH AN SLP OF 997 MB (31/1730 TO
1900Z) BUT THESE SHORT-LIVED, GALE-FORCE WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORM, WHICH WAS POSITIONED OVER
THE REEF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS), ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, AND WEAK BAROCLINICITY RELATED TO THE SHEAR LINE
INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
BASED ON THE DYNAMIC MODELS, WHICH INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2014-2-2 13:54

先補幾張圖(From對岸論壇)
首報路徑(BoM已撤編)

命名實測風力

目前JTWC降評Low
對流鬆散還要等看看了

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0S
152.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 150.3E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED ON THE EQUATORWARD EDGE
OF A SHEAR LINE. A 020357Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES WEAK
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAK
SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE AND AN OVERALL WEAK STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND IS UNDER SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW

t02436 · 2014-2-3 08:19

重升Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2S
150.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH
OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE
AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CARPENTARIA TO THE SOUTHERN SOLOMON ISLANDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED
BETWEEN THE TWO MAJOR ANTICYCLONE NODES OF THE RIDGE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

krichard2011 · 2014-2-3 12:59

Edna 又復活了
未來預測迴轉上看澳式C1
不過強度方面不是很看好...

martin191919 · 2014-2-3 15:29

TXPS21 KNES 030616
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)

B.  03/0532Z

C.  14.0S

D.  154.1E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS/TMI

H.  REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0.
MET AND PT AGREE.  FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

03/0011Z 14.2S 152.6E TMI

...KIBLER