t02436

基本資料     
    編號　　　　：98 P ( 09 F)
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 01 月 22日 06  時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 01 月 27日 00  時
　登陸地點　　：暫無
98P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-20S-165.3W

t02436

評級LOW
FMS編號09F

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.2S 165.5W,
APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LATEST
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP ALONG WITH A 220220Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE
WEST. A 211951Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST AMSU CROSS SECTION SHOWS A WARM
CORE ANOMALY AT APPROXIMATELY 14 TO 18 KILOMETERS WHILE THERE IS A
WEAK COLD CORE ANOMALY LOCATED THROUGHOUT THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC WHILE THERE IS MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACTING UPON THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA, THE
SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011

JTWC 升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
165.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 167.7W, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 220912Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF SHEARED DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 220913Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH SOME 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS DISPLACED FROM
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POOR ENVIRONMENT AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC ALL WHILE MODERATE (15-
25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO ACT UPON THE SYSTEM.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, HOWEVER, IS STARTING TO SHOW THE LOW
IS BEGINNING TO FILL WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH IS ALLOWING
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME TROPICAL IN NATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.