簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-1-17 09:12
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昨晚升評Medium
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S
160.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 160.2E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTION. A 160841Z TRMM 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
BROAD LLCC WITH FORMATIVE, ALBEIT BROKEN, CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MULTI-DIRECTIONAL OUTFLOW IS BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE TO LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN STRUCTURE AND OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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