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  基本資料  
    編號　　　　：91 S
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 01 月 04 日 14 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 01 月 06 日 12 時
　登陸地點　　：無

91S-INVEST.20kts-1007mb-197S-412E

t02436

與90P同時在12Z被評LOW~~~
雖然有點近岸但看有沒有機會發展起來

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.7S 41.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT ENCOMPASSES THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

martin191919

JTWC：REMAINS LOW

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7S
41.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 41.2E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 041526Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, LOOSELY WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, UNDER WESTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
LOW, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.