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krichard2011|2013-11-22 08:13
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顯示全部樓層
JTWC發出TCFA
層可見光雲圖來看結構看起來不錯
可能也暗示南半球的風季即將開始
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6S
118.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 211400Z METOP-B 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS, BUT INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE LEVELS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 29 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MOST MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK CIRCULATION, WHICH TRAVERSES NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT DO NOT INDICATE STRONG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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