94P 對流轉消長發展增變數

帥神 · 2013-10-19 08:25

  基本資料
編號                : 94 P
擾動編號日期  : 2013 年 10 月 19 日 06  時
消散日期       : 2013 年 10 月 21 日
登陸地點       : 無

94PINVEST.15kts-NAmb-118S-1660E.100pc.jpg

以上資料來自 : JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

sh991016 · 2013-10-19 11:20

本帖最後由 sh991016 於 2013-10-19 11:21 編輯

很快就MEDIUM!!!AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.1S 166.1E, APPROXIMATELY 742 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL-COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. AN 182148Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM. A UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

jwpk9899 · 2013-10-19 22:26

南太平洋的RCMC也就是FMS
也將它編號為01F囉
注:FMS編號不代表是熱低哦現在在FMS的分級中位於''熱帶擾動''等級
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 19/0643 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F [1005HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.6S 166.4E AT
190300UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WESTWARDS WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS MODERATE.