t02436

   熱帶風暴   
編號 : 15E
名稱 : OCTAVE
  基本資料   
擾動編號日期：2013 年 10 月 09 日 06 時
命名日期　　：2013 年 10 月 13 日 16 時
擾動消散日期：2013 年 10 月 16 日 13  時
登陸地點　　：墨西哥南下加利福尼亞州
　　　　　　　墨西哥錫那羅亞州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
美國海軍 (JTWC) :   55  kts
海平面最低氣壓    : 995 百帕
  過去路徑圖   


   討論帖圖片   
94E.INVEST.20kts-1009mb-11.2N-97.8W


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颶風發展衛星影像(左下為16E)




以上資料來自 : JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

CX723-A330

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

500 AM PDT WED OCT 9 2013


FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

DEPRESSION NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE

SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF

ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE

CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS

DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS

WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A

HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN

NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
48hrs:40%
Next 5 days:80%

t02436

HIGH!
48Hrs:60%
5Days:90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL1100 AM PDT WED OCT 9 2013FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALDEPRESSION NARDA...LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THESOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARESHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSAPPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ANDTHIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXTDAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGHCHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH

t02436

TCFA!
擾動編號24小時內就發TCFA
從編號到TCFA只花21小時
太不可思議了

t02436

取消TCFA

THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 092130). THE AREA OF CONVECTIONPREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 100.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.0W, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DISORGANIZED AND THE LOW LEVEL HAS UNRAVELED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE, LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, IS NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

t02436

降評Medium
48Hrs 50%
5Days 60%

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES INASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERALHUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSAPPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME ATROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS AMEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

t02436

再發TCFA!
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 107.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 108.0W, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AS BROKEN FORMATIVE BANDING HAS BECOME APPARENT ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A PARTIAL 121426Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS BUILDING STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS FAIR OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD DIRECTION IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH

jwpk9899

15E.FIFTEEN,升格15E囉~