1324 丹娜絲快速朝北北東移動影響日韓

丹尼兒 · 2013-10-1 10:45

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 16:39 編輯

  強烈颱風
編號  : 1324 ( 23W )
  名稱  : 丹娜絲 ( ＤＡＮＡＳ )

  基本資料

擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 10 月 1 日 11 時
  命名日期       : 2013 年 10 月  4  日 14 時
  消散日期       : 2013 年 10 月  9  日 8 時
  登陸地點       : 無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB) :   51  m/s ( 16  級 )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA)  : 50  m/s ( 100 kts )
　美國海軍 (JTWC) :  125  kts (  CAT 4  )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓 : 930 百帕
　七級風半徑    ：  250 公里
　十級風半徑    ：  100 公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
97W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-18.2N-151.8E

JMA:TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 18N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.
環流完整結構細小有立於短時間爆發增強不排除一兩天內有明顯發展
PS:這支會不會就是EC多報預測雙十來台的國慶颱呢?

以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

阿隆 · 2013-10-1 10:48

本帖最後由阿隆於 2013-10-1 11:10 編輯

97W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-18.2N-151.8E
擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 10 月 01 日 11 時
消散日期 : 0000 年 00 月 00 日
登陸地點 : 暫無

丹尼兒 · 2013-10-1 10:53

附小J 最新出爐天氣圖除了剛蹦出的97W外還有許多正在發展的低壓區

西太目前相當熱鬧阿

丹尼兒 · 2013-10-1 16:50

本帖最後由丹尼兒於 2013-10-1 16:53 編輯

這支無意外就是EC穩定預測的雙十節來報到的颱丹娜絲

強度方面看看就好從這摸遠的路途過來強度不只這等級...

話說上次的雙十颱應該就大名鼎鼎1994年的席斯當年來台的猛貨也不少

另外可以注意到丹娜絲襲台時他的後方又有一個系統生成...今年破28颱機率高

蔡秉勳 · 2013-10-1 18:14

本帖最後由蔡秉勳於 2013-10-1 18:16 編輯

以EC的雲量預報圖來看,
東和北台灣要注意丹娜絲是否與東北季風產生共伴效應:o

t02436 · 2013-10-2 21:16

未來丹娜絲?已發Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 020014Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT MAX WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE BETTER DEFINITION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

蔡秉勳 · 2013-10-2 21:42

感謝J18大的提醒,差點忘記它的存在><
<02日21時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域南鳥島近海
中心位置北緯 16度40分(16.7度)
東経 150度40分(150.7度)
進行方向、速さ西南西ゆっくり
中心気圧 1006hPa
最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<03日21時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心北緯 16度25分(16.4度)
東経 148度00分(148.0度)
進行方向、速さ西 15km/h(7kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)

krichard2011 · 2013-10-3 07:26

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-10-3 08:19 編輯

JTWC 疑似已發出TCFA
以下為報文
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ENHANCED FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021948Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF LLCC. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS SYMMETRICAL, COLLOCATED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE DISTURBANCE AND HAS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING HINDERED BY A TUTT LOCATED TO NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT, CONSOLIDATING ENHANCED CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A