簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2013-9-30 05:17
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老J發出TCFA
WTPN22 PGTW 291730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/282321Z SEP 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 282330)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.1N 150.7E TO 28.5N 142.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
291700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N
149.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.2N
152.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST
OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 291132Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INTO THE
SOUTH QUADRANT OF A DEFINED CENTER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW)
IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTENING PHASE WITH A NEAR-SYMMETRIC CORE OF
DEEP MOISTURE EVOLVING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE TPW IMAGERY ALONG
WITH RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS, WHICH SHOW A +1C WARM ANOMALY,
PROVIDE EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM A SUBTROPICAL
(COLD-CORE) SYSTEM TO A WARM-CORE SYSTEM. A 291132Z ASCAT IMAGE
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE CORE BUT ALSO
SHOWS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 60 TO 80
NM, WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS) AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A TUTT CELL BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER FAVORABLE SST (28
TO 29C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301730Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 134.9E.//
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