martin191919

  一級颶風   
編號  : 10L ( 2013 )
名稱  : Ingrid

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 09 月 10 日
命名日期         : 2013 年 09 月 13 日
消散日期         : 2013 年 09 月 17 日
登陸地點         : 墨西哥(共二次)
   
  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    國家颶風中心 (NHC)：   70   kts
    海平面最低氣壓　　 ： 989 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
93L INVEST.20kts-NAmb-18.0N-86.0W

martin191919

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY THURSDAY...WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO FORM.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  

krichard2011

NHC的評級已經升到30%(Medium)了
並且預測 未來五天之內有70%的機率會增強為TC
不過目前結構仍破碎且相當靠近陸地
如果能順利進入墨灣應該是有機會發展的


A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULAAND BELIZE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND TODAY AND ENTER THE BAY OFCAMPECHE ON THURSDAY.  SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER THESYSTEM EMERGES OVER WATER...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS.  ASSUMING THE SYSTEM REMAINS OFFSHORE... UPPER-LEVEL WINDSSHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERTHE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEMHAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AREPOSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OFMEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

martin191919

40%
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THE
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

krichard2011

第一次看過
在陸地上居然也能TCFA

martin191919

10L
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 19.7N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 19.7N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 19.5N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 19.3N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 19.3N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 20.7N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 22.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

桑達

升格為10L 強度上看50KTS 不過前方的風切滿強的

martin191919

後天半夜左右就登陸墨西哥，發展時間已不多
40 KTS(45 MPH)