95W 受制97W直轉下?

t02436 · 2013-9-9 18:18

擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 09 月 09 日 18:00
擾動撤編日期 : 2013 年 09 月 11 日 16:30

95W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-13.4N-149.2E

CX723-A330 · 2013-9-9 18:47

t02436 · 2013-9-9 23:03

NCEP預測形成機率已來到100%
看來萬宜勢在必行了...
路徑目前朝向西北
爾後預測會撲向日本

開梅 · 2013-9-10 00:08

93w感覺好像要被95w給吸化了，但還是目前預測往日本方向去

t02436 · 2013-9-10 06:37

Medium!
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 148.6E, APPROXIMATELY 257 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS REMAINED STRONG, BUT HAS BEGUN TO BROADEN AND ELONGATE ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF GUAM. MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 30 KNOTS) REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

wesley23 · 2013-9-10 08:50

GFS預測大翻盤了

朝台灣前進....

springisbest · 2013-9-10 14:03

wesley23 發表於 2013-9-10 08:50
GFS預測大翻盤了

朝台灣前進....

真的是事事難料, 若副高仍像今天一樣火熱, 那中秋節 ...唉:Q

丹尼兒 · 2013-9-10 14:26

本帖最後由丹尼兒於 2013-9-10 14:36 編輯

從昨晚12Z開始 GFS就已經開為台灣派了不過這系集的路徑有出現問題並沒標上算起已連3報了支持西進逼台甚至還有持續南修情況...

會有這樣的預測應該是萬宜持續西進至130E左右時北方西風帶南壓推擠副高產生弱點按慣例是有利於他北上的... 但問題來了槽線不夠強無法直接牽動他北上這段時間...萬宜會有略北偏且減速(類似滯留)的過程 ...

西風帶南壓時間並不長隨後華北高壓即刻東移西風代開始北退跟副高串連北方型成高壓霸並讓萬宜轉西再轉偏西南移動~~當然台灣可就HIGH了~~

如果真是有可能仿蘇力遠洋撲台模式值得注意

呆回看看EC速報如何~~