94W 季風助長對流引爆

krichard2011 · 2013-9-9 13:19

擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 09 月 09 日 13:20
擾動撤編日期 : 2013 年 09 月 10 日 08:30
94W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-15.3N-114.4E

t02436 · 2013-9-9 19:08

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2013-9-9 19:11 編輯

快速發展中

MEDIUM!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 115.1E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A RECENT 090400Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION WAS ELONGATED ALONG THE EAST-WEST AXIS WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CIRCULATION IS UNDER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF AN ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE ALSO FAVORABLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION, THE FAVORABLE SST VALUES, AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2013-9-9 20:51

這是代表94W發TCFA的意思嘛...

今天NRL的網頁整個就是怪...資料都沒有更新-.-

martin191919 · 2013-9-10 07:55

已降為Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 114E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.1E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE POLEWARD EDGE OF
THE LLCC. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND
BECOME MORE ELONGATED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. A
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS ONLY SHOWS TROUGHING OVER THE AREA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

krichard2011 · 2013-9-10 09:02

94W 已經被NRL判死亡了
似乎已撤編...

martin191919 · 2013-9-10 10:31

krichard2011 發表於 2013-9-10 09:02
94W 已經被NRL判死亡了
似乎已撤編...

一路好走.....
ABPW10 PGTW 100130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/100130Z-100600ZSEP2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
111.1E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMA : LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 14N 112E WEST 10 KT.