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krichard2011|2013-8-15 11:09
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本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2013-8-15 12:21 編輯
正式升格05L
螺旋性還不錯
對流也有逐漸爆發出來的趨勢
只差在底層稍嫌鬆散待進一步的整合
目前看好未來應該會有不錯的發展
----------------以下為NHC的資料----------------
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013
ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS AN INNER CORE REGION OF
LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDED BY A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR 30 KT...BUT
THE CENTER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WELL DEFINED TO FIT THE DEFINITION
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONLY T1.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...BUT GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW WIND SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND A
MOIST AIR MASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BECOME A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...
THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF FROM ITS DEEP MOISTURE
SOURCE TO THE SOUTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A
CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES...AND
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS. ONCE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 4 TO
5 DAYS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...THE
OTHER TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 14.0N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 14.5N 25.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.5N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 17.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
NNNN
----------------以下為FWC-N的資料----------------
WTNT01 KNGU 150300
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (05L) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/141300ZAUG13//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (05L) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 23.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 23.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.5N 25.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.1N 27.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.7N 30.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.5N 32.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.5N 37.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 17.5N 41.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5N 46.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 23.6W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (05L), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2149 NM
EASTWARD OF BARBADOS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A.//
BT
#0001
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