Meow

18.9N 90.4E

孟加拉南方

frintezza

終於LOW了
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.9N 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND FRAGMENTED BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 280240Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING; HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS CURRENTLY WEAK DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S PROXIMITY TO LAND AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DESPITE THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION, RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO BANGLADESH OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

但問題是, 94B太接近陸地了, 而且南面風切頗強, 能否在那狹窄的空間發展成疑

Meow

frintezza 發表於 2013-5-28 19:40
終於LOW了
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.9N 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF KO ...

北印度洋不乏近岸發展的例子，去年的 BOB 01、2010 年的 Giri 都是，發展時已與陸地相當近，何況 94W 已經滯留。

jwpk9899

IMD編低氣壓BOB2許久怎麼都沒人要發呢~~

Time of issue: 1400 hours IST Dated: 29-05-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 02/2013/02
Sub: Depression over north Bay of Bengal.
The depression over north Bay of Bengal moved northward and lay centred at 1130
hrs IST of today, the 29th May 2013 near latitude 21.50N and longitude 89.50E, about 90 km
southwest of Khepupara (Bangladesh) and 160 km southeast of Kolkata. The system would
move northwards and cross Bangladesh coast near long. 89.50E, about 70 km west of
Khepupara within a few hours.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very
heavy falls would occur over Gangetic West Bengal, Mizoram and Tripura during next 24 hrs.
Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over Assam,
Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur and sub-Himalyan West Bengal on 30th and 31st May 2013.
Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would prevail along
and off West Bengal coast during next 24 hrs. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along
and off West Bengal coast during this period.
Fishermen of West Bengal coast are advised not to venture into the sea during next
24 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 29th May, 2013.

Meow

jwpk9899 發表於 2013-5-29 19:26
IMD編低氣壓BOB2許久怎麼都沒人要發呢~~

Time of issue: 1400 hours IST Dated: 29-05-2013

我在工讀所以發不了，倒是很多人大概不曉得 IMD 是什麼……

丹尼兒

感覺上孟加拉灣至阿拉伯海一帶的熱帶氣旋都很難被升格...

不知是當地氣象單位為過於嚴苛...還是省命名? 怕名字不夠用?

型態跟風力明明具有ts等級了  相信在西太 肯定馬上能被小j命名


ps:浪費了一個可命名的氣旋

Meow

丹尼兒 發表於 2013-5-29 22:10
感覺上孟加拉灣至阿拉伯海一帶的熱帶氣旋都很難被升格...

不知是當地氣象單位為過於嚴苛...還是省命名? 怕 ...

JMA 分析 CI2.0 就會升格 TS 並命名，IMD 與 JTWC 都要等 CI2.5 所以比較難命名，而且北印度洋風暴確實不易整合。

這個 BOB 02 就算拿到西北太平洋也不會命名，結構不夠好，掃瞄也只到 30 節，但是 IMD 有編號的都會有最佳路徑。

Meow

搬移早了，IMD 這清晨才降格。

Time of issue:1900 hours IST Dated: 31-05-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 02/2013/13
Sub: Depression over Jharkhand weakened into a well marked low pressure area over Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand.
The depression over Jharkhand and neighbourhood weakened and lay as a well marked low pressure area over Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand at 1730 IST of today the 31st May, 2013.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal and Sikkim during next 24 hours.
This is the last bulletin for this system.