22S.Victoria 猛爆後南墜轉受限

阿隆 · 2013-4-3 22:37

  三級熱帶氣旋
編號：17 U ( 22 S )
名稱：Victoria

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2013 年 04 月 08 日 14 時
　命名日期　　：2013 年 04 月 09 日 20 時
　消散日期　　：2013 年 04 月 12 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：-

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
澳洲氣象局 (BOM)： 75 kts  (  CAT 1  )
美國海軍 (JTWC) ：  75 kts  (  CAT 1  )
海平面最低氣壓    ： 971  百帕

  過去路徑圖
暫無
  討論帖圖片
94S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-7.0S-96.0E

krichard2011 · 2013-4-5 22:43

目前94S處在的環境還是有點不利
所在位置風切還是偏大
一樣可能要等到環境改善才可能開始發展
所以目前還是暫時不看好它~~

SHYUDOL · 2013-4-7 20:18

似乎沒人發現94S已經被評為LOW了...
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9S 97.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER WHAT SEEMS TO BE A VERY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), AS DETAILED IN THE 061718Z OSCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED UNDERNEATH MODERATE 20-KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO THE CURRENT LOCATION WELL
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OCEAN PARAMETERS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-
31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT EXTENDING TO
10 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POLEWARD TRACK SUGGESTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE COULD CAUSE VWS TO RELAX WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, SUCH DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEAR
FUTURE AND COULD TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

阿隆 · 2013-4-8 02:04

SHYUDOL · 2013-4-8 18:04

有人被這張圖騙到麻~
這只是對流的空洞哦~
下午3點的圖~

krichard2011 · 2013-4-8 23:14

螺旋性轉佳~~
JTWC也於剛剛升為MEDIUM
這隻看起來滿有潛力的
不過還是跟前一個21S一樣
附近垂直風切都偏強~~

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.6S
101.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 101.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN 080208Z AND 080303Z ASCAT PASSES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
UNDERNEATH STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) HOWEVER, THESE VALUES SHOULD DECREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS POLEWARD. THE CURRENT LOCATION IS A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

阿隆 · 2013-4-9 01:43

僅管現強度還是在15kts~
但底層儼然已開始建立+順時針對流已現,評價MEDIUM看好未來發展,還是勉強可接受拉:Q!

SHYUDOL · 2013-4-9 19:26

BOM命名為Victoria 大陸論壇譯名''維多利亞''

AXAU01 APRF 090707
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0706 UTC 09/04/2013
Name: Tropical Cyclone Victoria
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.3S
Longitude: 102.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [160 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
+12: 09/1800: 13.9S 103.4E:    045 [080]:  050  [095]:  990
+24: 10/0600: 15.3S 104.1E:    070 [130]:  060  [110]:  983
+36: 10/1800: 16.5S 104.7E:    090 [165]:  055  [100]:  986
+48: 11/0600: 18.2S 105.3E:    110 [200]:  045  [085]:  992
+60: 11/1800: 20.0S 105.8E:    130 [235]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72: 12/0600: 22.7S 106.3E:    145 [270]:  030  [055]: 1002